New Seat Details - Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	20,868	44.0%
CON	20,222	42.6%
LIB	3,054	6.4%
MIN	1,637	3.5%
UKIP	970	2.0%
Green	624	1.3%
OTH	42	0.1%
LAB Majority	646	1.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Map

List of old seats forming part of Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

Old seat: Haltemprice and Howden

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Haltemprice and Howden, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Haltemprice and Howden				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham North	6,534	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,671	1,821	247	0	90	0	245	0	5,074
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham South	6,917	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,607	2,161	322	0	83	0	57	0	5,230
East Riding of Yorkshire	Dale	12,994	Goole, Howden and Axholme	6,483	2,946	461	0	136	0	297	0	10,323
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howden	3,955	Goole, Howden and Axholme	1,715	918	132	0	33	0	31	0	2,829
East Riding of Yorkshire	Howdenshire	11,526	Goole, Howden and Axholme	6,330	2,004	165	0	69	0	78	0	8,646
East Riding of Yorkshire	South Hunsley	7,983	Goole, Howden and Axholme	3,993	1,353	266	0	74	0	71	0	5,757
East Riding of Yorkshire	Tranby	7,475	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,741	2,359	393	0	100	0	66	0	5,659
East Riding of Yorkshire	Willerby and Kirk Ella	10,720	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	4,815	2,388	496	0	126	0	97	0	7,922
	Total	68,104		31,355	15,950	2,482	0	711	0	942	0	51,440

The full details of these calculations are given on the Haltemprice and Howden seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hull West and Hessle

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hull West and Hessle, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hull West and Hessle				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
East Riding of Yorkshire	Hessle	10,943	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	2,489	2,588	497	245	33	0	266	9	6,127
Kingston Upon Hull	Boothferry	9,463	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,597	2,407	421	207	68	0	216	8	4,924
Kingston Upon Hull	Derringham	8,746	Kingston upon Hull North	1,524	2,279	361	188	62	0	211	7	4,632
Kingston Upon Hull	Myton	8,292	Kingston upon Hull East	1,405	3,924	254	240	46	0	516	18	6,403
Kingston Upon Hull	Newington	7,426	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,121	2,759	191	185	57	0	189	7	4,509
Kingston Upon Hull	Pickering	8,725	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	1,427	2,411	357	197	51	0	206	7	4,656
Kingston Upon Hull	St Andrew's	4,688	Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice	754	1,974	130	136	16	0	295	11	3,316
	Total	58,283		10,317	18,342	2,211	1,398	333	0	1,899	67	34,567

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hull West and Hessle seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham North	7,054	Haltemprice and Howden	2,671	1,821	247	0	90	0	245	0	5,074
East Riding of Yorkshire	Cottingham South	7,272	Haltemprice and Howden	2,607	2,161	322	0	83	0	57	0	5,230
East Riding of Yorkshire	Hessle	10,668	Hull West and Hessle	2,489	2,588	497	245	33	0	266	9	6,127
East Riding of Yorkshire	Tranby	7,868	Haltemprice and Howden	2,741	2,359	393	0	100	0	66	0	5,659
East Riding of Yorkshire	Willerby and Kirk Ella	11,014	Haltemprice and Howden	4,815	2,388	496	0	126	0	97	0	7,922
Kingston Upon Hull	Boothferry	8,571	Hull West and Hessle	1,597	2,407	421	207	68	0	216	8	4,924
Kingston Upon Hull	Newington	7,850	Hull West and Hessle	1,121	2,759	191	185	57	0	189	7	4,509
Kingston Upon Hull	Pickering	8,106	Hull West and Hessle	1,427	2,411	357	197	51	0	206	7	4,656
Kingston Upon Hull	St Andrew's	5,771	Hull West and Hessle	754	1,974	130	136	16	0	295	11	3,316
	Total	74,174		20,222	20,868	3,054	970	624	0	1,637	42	47,417

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Emma Hardy (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,174
Turnout:	63.9%

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice: Overview

Introduction